The Computational Propaganda Project

Oxford Internet Institute, University of Oxford

Improving Predictive Accuracy in Elections

Abstract: The problem of accurately predicting vote counts in elections is considered in this article. Typically, small-sample polls are used to estimate or predict election outcomes. In this study, a machine-learning hybrid approach is proposed. This approach utilizes multiple sets of static data sources, such as voter registration data, and dynamic data sources, such as polls…

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Harvesting Social Signals to Inform Peace Processes Implementation and Monitoring

Abstract: Peace processes are complex, protracted, and contentious involving significant bargaining and compromising among various societal and political stakeholders. In civil war terminations, it is pertinent to measure the pulse of the nation to ensure that the peace process is responsive to citizens’ concerns. Social media yields tremendous power as a tool for dialogue, debate, organization,…

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